IN-03: A Sleeper?

$226,409.87

That’s how much the National Republican Congressional Committee spent in the fall of 2006 to protect Republican incumbent Mark Souder in a district that delivered only 31% of its vote to John Kerry in the last Presidential election.  (The DCCC saved its money for other races.)

In that race, Souder faced off with a Fort Wayne city councilman, Tom Hayhurst, who only had to raise $690K to outspend the incumbent’s war chest of $642K.  Souder eventually went on to win that election, but by a much smaller margin than any Republican has any business winning in the 33rd most Republican congressional district in the nation: 54%-46%.

Souder, who seems set in his sluggish fundraising ways, has found himself with yet another quick-moving Democratic challenger: Michael Montagano.  Montagano, a young (26!) lawyer, outraised Souder by a $106K to $84K margin in the second quarter.  That showing has already inspired comparisons between Souder and another lethargic Republican Indiana of yore: John Hostettler (formerly of the 8th District).  According to Roll Call (subscription required), DCCC Chair Chris Van Hollen met with Montagano recently and came away impressed:

Souder’s 3rd district is heavily Republican – it gave President Bush 68 percent of its 2004 presidential vote – but even Republicans privately concede that Souder, who came to Congress in the Republican wave of 1994, had too close of a call last year.

[…]

Democrats think Souder could be 2008’s Hostettler.

“Chairman Van Hollen came away impressed from his meeting with Michael Montagano yesterday and believes this seat could be a potential sleeper race in 2008,” DCCC spokesman Ryan Rudominer said Friday.

With a PVI of R+16.3, Montagano would be serving the fourth-most Republican district in the nation with Democratic representation if elected.  The top three Democrats in that class?  Chet Edwards of Texas, Jim Matheson of Utah, and Gene Taylor of Mississippi.  In other words, if Montagano is to have a shot in a Presidential year, even against a luckluster incumbent, he’s gonna need some mad political skills.  But if Montagano, like Hayhurst before him, could force the NRCC to drop some precious cash to shore up an incumbent in crimson red territory, that will be a victory in and of itself.

5 thoughts on “IN-03: A Sleeper?”

  1. I think you got this one about right, James.  It is a REALLY tough district in terms of how Republican it is, but it is not as hard-core conservative as IN04 and IN05 are.  If he would show any inclination to run, I think our best candidate would be Fort Wayne Mayor Graham Richard.

    One advantage Brad Ellsworth had in running in the 8th district last year was that John Hostettler had made a career out of being a flipping loon, whereas Mark Souder seems to be making a career out of being incredibly unremarkable.

  2. in 94 republicans won six seats in washington state, but they didn’t stick, with democrats picking up three seats in the next four years.  indiana might go the same way, bucking the democrats who won in 2006.  or, hopefully, anger over the governor will slowly realign the state, but i’ll bet that’s what the republicans thought back in 1995 about washington

  3. Chet Taylor’s district is more Republica, and wins in it easily. At least he idd last time, but like i said, it would be the most Republican district in the country held by a Democrat. Taylors was 69-30, this one is 68-31, a small difference.

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